When Brett Kavanaugh was just your average, run-of-the-mill, absurdly powerful white man, I thought his confirmation to the Supreme Court was essentially a done deal. As I said before, Republicans had the votes and Democrats didn't. But last week a professor alleged that Kavanaugh assaulted her when they were both in high school; then, this morning, I read the news that three additional women now make similar allegations, and this changes the situation. Because, while Republicans have the votes and Democrats don't, Republicans might not have the votes after November 6th. This is a very important difference.
I've often reflected that in a republic such as ours, the only thing that gets the attention of politicians is votes. If you don't vote, you don't matter, plain and simple. In the aftermath of September 11th, and for many years afterwards, support for protecting America with a lethal and largely unaccountable mass surveillance and perpetual war apparatus was a key issue, criticism of which was destined to lose a politician votes. The Kavanaugh accusations now are beginning to resemble what opposition to perpetual war was then, an issue that could cost votes. How much do Republicans really want to sacrifice to support one bland white man, no matter how ideologically trustworthy he is? There are a dozen just like him, ready to be promoted to the highest ranks of the government. Mark my words, that, and not the accusations themselves, is what the Republican leadership is thinking about now.