peart

Monte Hall Theory

If you choose door #1.

Monte shows you #2 it's a goat.

Do you switch to #3?

Yes because the odds are 66% in your favor.

Why?

Take 100 doors
you pick 1
2 to 99 are shown to be duds
what are the odds that door 100 has the car? 99%

So apply this to a multiple choice example.

You got some question with 4 choices.

one is the answer
one is an obvious false answer
the other two are middle of the road

so
probability wise before crossing out the wrong answer

A. 25%
B. 25%
C. 25%
D. 25%

you eliminate B, choose A as your first guess.

A 25%
C 37.5%
D 37.5%

You eliminate C

A. 25%
D 75%

If you have no clue either way your best bet is to switch your awnswer to D

(i'm bored)