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Sunday Oct 09, 2011

Oct 9, 2011
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French electio

Le Monde



A successful election, but that leaves the PS in a risky setting for the second round, is the landscape that is emerging Sunday, October 9 on the evening of the first round of the primary radical socialist.

Participation: the PS turns the test. The Socialist Party has succeeded to an unprecedented consultation in France. With an estimated participation in the late evening to 2.5 million voters, the primary citizen held by the PS kept his promise and motivated voters.

Although, as has been pleased to notice Jean-Francois Cope, head of the UMP, this represents only 5% of the electorate about the success of this election has generated images of crowds of voters thronging before the polls throughout France. In poor neighborhoods, in Roubaix or Courneuve example, the mobilization has surprised observers accustomed to a persistent abstention.

This participation has given the Socialist Party and its future candidate a driving force. Especially since no fraud likely to tarnish the image of the poll is reported, despite some minor disruptions. Several leaders of the UMP has also welcomed the exercise.

>> Read: "The UMP welcomes the year but has reservations," "The language elements of the UMP against the PS", "A few bugs in an unprecedented election," in Roubaix: "I saw vote people who never do, "La Courneuve:" I came to vote for change! "

Franois Hollande, October 9, 2011 in Paris.

Franois Hollande, October 9, 2011 at Paris.REUTERS / Gonzalo Fuentes

Holland in the lead, but not triumphant. The final results will be known late Monday morning. But with 39% of the ballots, according to the latest estimates of the party office on 7700 out of 9500, Franois Hollande is indisputably in the lead. The favorite candidate polls has kept ahead in the polls that gave him the opinion polls, but a level that would have made victory inevitable. Finally, this score does not allow him to be assured a victory.

The candidate seemed to take note in his statement, calling "the largest gathering" behind him and quoting all its competitors. One of them, Manuel Valls, has also called for a vote for the member of Corrze in the second round of the primary. Mr. Holland, who sought to take advantage until the end of the momentum it had acquired over a long campaign over a year, is now pushed to bounce to raise.

He knows that his rival has hammered the argument that he was undecided, and too conciliatory with the "system". Synthetic man who led the party, he must, if he still wants to lead Sunday, October 16, attracting the votes of voters to other candidates whose political line seems a priori more similar to that of Martine Aubry: Arnaud Montebourg and Segolene Royal. Sunday evening, he greeted both in his speech.

>> Read: "Francois Hollande called the rally the largest around his candidacy"

Martine Aubry speaks to his supporters on Sunday night after the first round of the primary PS.

Martine Aubry speaks to his supporters on Sunday night after the first round of the primary PS. AFP / MIGUEL MEDINA

Aubry accelerated, but not disqualified. His campaign was seen as disappointing, the final score is not that much. With 31% estimated the party Sunday night at 9, comes second behind Martine Aubry Franois Hollande, but with a standard split-judged by those around him.

The former first secretary has changed his statement after the election into a real political speech, recalling the "hype of the polls," and referring to, beyond the image of a "great team of France" that gave as PS it, that "to preside over the destiny of France in a difficult period in addition, must have both a vision, draw a path and make a clear plan." It seems in position to benefit from the carry-over votes, including those of Arnaud Montebourg. Voluntarily in a speech, she cited numerous categories of voters on the left, seeming to want to confine his opponent in a centrist position. Having often been attacked on his unwillingness to campaign, she replied: "I will fight Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012."

>> Read: Aubry: "It takes a sharp left" and "Aubry seems best placed to get voters Montebourg" analysis Franoise Fressoz, editor of the World

Arnaud Montebourg, October 9, 2011. To his right, Audrey Pulvar.

Arnaud Montebourg, October 9, 2011. To his right, Audrey Pulvar. AFP / THOMAS COEX

Montebourg kingmaker. With about 17% of the vote, 10 points more than Sgolne Royal, the third place of Arnaud Montebourg is one of the surprises of the primary. In his speech to his supporters to Bellevilloise in the twentieth arrondissement of Paris, the president of the General Council of Sane-et-Loire claimed to have successfully "exploit to prove the polls wrong, to set the two minority candidates Institutional and [to] the heart of rural de-globalization. " "My determination to continue the fight is complete. Everyone has the power and measure the force that drove me to the gates of the second round," he added.

With a score that made him the arbiter of the second round, Arnaud Montebourg has not announced which candidate he would call to vote in the second round. It will be the guest log 20 hours of France 2, Monday, Oct. 10. Most of the activists interviewed at the Bellevilloise say look for Martine Aubry. On the side of Franois Hollande and Martine Aubry, was launched on Sunday night to signal Arnaud Montebourg and his constituents. Indeed, Laurent Fabius, support Martine Aubry, said that there would be "convergence" between Arnaud Montebourg the mayor of Lille on several topics. In his speech, Francois Hollande said "understand" the "need for change" embodied by the candidacy of Arnaud Montebourg.

>> Read: third arrived, and is already relishing Montebourg courted

Sgolne Royal, the tears. With the score Arnaud Montebourg, the other surprise of the evening. The president of the Poitou-Charentes will harvest about 7% of the vote, followed closely by Manuel Valls. An obvious cons-performance, not only in terms of its performance in 2007, where she had gathered in his name 17 million votes, but especially against a brisk campaign and acclaimed as effective.

In his speech Sunday night, Segolene Royal took "note of the very disappointing result compared to the beautiful countryside driving with all [his] team across the country." The candidate, who could not contain his emotion at the end of the evening has yet given any instructions to vote for the second round. According to his entourage, she will speak during the week of his choice.

>> Read "The disappointment invaded the camp Sgolne Royal"

The PS provides a mixed picture on Sunday night: he triumphed at the organizational level and on the party by posting a united face and showing a real ability to organize a peaceful and open debate among its main figures. But the fairly open configuration of the second round left the door open to all negotiations, and all risks of tension during the weeks ahead.

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